WE HAVE PASSED
Population Growth Will Occur Somewhere
Between 2020 To 2029
2020 @ 6.64 Billion
2029 @ 6.90 Billion
by Mark R. Elsis
Citizen of Earth
May 1, 2000
The human population of Earth reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion
in 1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974 and 5 billion
in late 1986. Last year on October 12th 1999, the human population
of Earth reached 6 billion. In my lifetime the population has
doubled from 3 billion in 1959 to the 6,034,213,000 today. This
doubling of population which occured over the last 40 years
will never come close to happening again.
The exponential growth of human population peaked in 1987. That
year 87.01 million more people were added to the Earth. Since
1987, the population has declined on average by 2.1 million
less people added per year. In this year of 2000 the population
will increase by 60.1 million people. If we maintain this 13
year average of 2.1 million less people added per year, we will
peak in population reaching zero population growth in 2029 with
6.90 billion people.
The decline of human population has been even more dramatic
over the last 6 years. In 1994 we added 78.5 million more people,
this year we will add 60.1 million. This is a decline of 3 million
less people added per year. If we maintain this 6 year average
of 3 million less people added per year, we will peak in population
reaching zero population growth in 2020 with 6.64 billion people.
When demographers from the United Nation's did their biennial
update of world population numbers in October of 1998 they
reduced their projected average population for 2050 from 9.4
billion to 8.9 billion. They also reduced their low number,
saying we will reach zero population growth in 2038 @ 7.47 billion.
People that are somewhat aware of human population numbers are
talking about the 8.9 billion in 2050. Some people are saying
it will go higher and a few foolhearty cornucopians are still
saying that our population is nearly limitless. All the while
no one seems to be looking at nor talking about their low number
which has constantly been reduced for the last 13 years. When
the United Nations meets again this fall, the projected high,
average and low numbers will be reduced once again.
If you take a look at the 2 charts we have produced from the
United Nations year by year population
figures you can see the declines for yourself. Our population
has been going down faster for the last 6 years than even their
low numbers for reaching zero population growth in 2038 @ 7.47
billion. This is shown by their low number for January 1, 2000
which is 6,027,534,000, yet on October 12, 1999 they said we
reached 6,000,000,000. We could not have added 27,534,000 people
in 80 days. We actually added 13,880,000 to make it 6,013,880,000
in the last 80 days of 1999. What this all means is we will
reach zero population growth somewhere between 2020 @ 6.64 billion
and 2029 @ 6.90 billion.
Perhaps the powers that be have an interest in keeping you thinking
we can expand forever, implying that the Earth's resources are
limitless. Perhaps the capitalistic economic system that rules
Earth does not want to let you know the truth about our crashing
population and that we will reach zero population growth very
The true reasons why our population is crashing is we have passed
our sustainable limits for both of our major food energy sources,
grains and fish, as well as very quickly reaching our fresh
water limits. This awareness is not what the capitalistic economic
system powers that be want you to know. It would be bad for
Our crashing population is both good and bad. It is good because
these numbers show the indisputable evidence of the collapse
that has been under way now for the past 13 years. This is the
ultimate wake up call for Homo Sapiens. If there were ever a
sign to take a long hard look at what we as a species are doing
to all of the life sustaining ecosystems on Earth, this is it.
On the other hand this is bad because we have yet to recognize
the alarming facts that for the last 16 years we have passed the
sustainable food limits that Earth can produce relative to population.
This plus our population is going down faster and faster each
year for 13 straight years. Meanwhile 3.6 billion people are
barely getting enough to eat with more than 1 billion of them
in total abject poverty. And let us not forget that somewhere
between 10 and 30 million children die every year of the worst
possible death, starvation
and starvation related diseases.
Why did the exponential growth of human population peak in 1987?
Why has our population been going down every year since? Why
is our population declining more each year than the preceeding
one? Why is this crashing slowdown in our population happening?
And why will our population reach zero population growth somewhere
between the years 2020 and 2029?
In the following areas you will find the major factors that
have caused our population to peak in 1987 with 87 million more
people added and decline on average by 2.1 million less people
per year over the last 13 years.
Sustainability Of Soil Energy:
The rise in Grain Yield per hectare is slowing in all major
grain-producing regions. Since 1984, grain output per person
has fallen on average by .6 percent per year. In 1998, the per
capita grain output further declined to 695 pounds, this is
an 8 percent decline from the peak in 1984 when the per capita
grain output was 755 pounds. The slower growth in world grain
harvest is due to the lack of new land and slower growth in
irrigation and fertilizer use. Irrigated area per person, after
expanding by 30 percent from 1950 until 1978, has declined by
4 percent. Since then the growth in the irrigated area has fallen
behind that of population. With biotechnology neither providing
nor promising any dramatic breakthrough in raising yields, there
is little hope for restoring growth in food output.
Of Fisheries Energy:
The worldwide Fish Catch peaked in 1989 at 100 million metric
tons. Since 1989, the seafood catch per person has fallen by
2 percent per year. Marine biologists at the Food and Agriculture
Organization report that all 17 of the major oceanic fisheries
are being fished at or beyond capacity. Nine are in a state
Fresh Water Limits:
Since the amount of fresh water available for human consumption
is constant, as population grows, the supply of fresh water
per person declines. As a result, the amount of water available
per person is expected to decline by 74 percent between 1950
and 2050. Nearly half a billion people around the world face
water shortages today. By 2025, the number is expected to grow
to 2.8 billion people. Of these, at least 1 billion people will
be living in countries facing absolute water scarcity. Most
overpopulated, fast-urbanizing countries of Asia, Latin America
and Africa have to survive on largely polluted rivers and wells.
Water is a major carrier of disease bearing germs. As many as
2.3 billion people in the world today suffer from diseases linked
to water, such as dysentery, cholera and typhoid. Less than
1 percent of the Earth's water is fit and available for human
Planning For Women / Literacy
Successful family planning programs have led to many positive
developments. Women's literacy rates have gone up and they are
now given a much greater role in the society of many countries.
This has increased their knowledge of their reproduction cycles
and bodies. As a result, as many as 75 countries from all regions
of the world now have achieved replacement level fertility rates
of 2.1 children per woman or less.
And Child Mortality / Starvation And Its Related Diseases:
10 million children died before reaching their fifth birthday
in 1998 and nearly 8 million of them did not reach their first
birthday. About 98 percent of child deaths occurred in developing
countries, with the least developed countries accounting for
a third of all deaths under age five. In the developed world,
only eight out of every 1,000 newborn children died before they
reached their first birthday in 1998; in the developing world,
the number of deaths was 64 per 1,000 newborns. Infants in the
least developed countries fared even worse, with 109 of every
1,000 newborn children dying before age one. Similarly, mortality
under age five was seven times higher in developing countries
and 12 times higher in least developed countries than in developed
All industrial countries have held HIV infection rates of their
adult populations under 1 percent but in some countries of sub-Saharan
Africa, they have climbed above 20 percent. In Botswana, the
adult infection level is 26 percent. In Zimbabwe, 25 percent,
and in South Africa, 22 percent. Countries with infection rates
of 18 to 20 percent include Namibia, Swaziland, and Zambia.
Aside from raising mortality, the virus also reduces fertility.
With new infections at the highest level in the 15- to 24-year
age group in sub-Saharan Africa, many young women will die before
they complete their childbearing years. In addition, as the
infection progresses toward full-blown AIDS, ovulation often
ceases, reducing fertility further. In 1981, there were 200,000
new infections; in 1998, there were 5.8 million new infections.
Preliminary data indicate a far bigger jump in 1999.
The work of many great people throughout history to bring awareness
of the catastrophic problems of exponential population growth
and the disasters it will create when the sustainable limits
of Earth are reached. Thank you all, especially Dr. Paul R.
on 3 million less people added per year Zero Population Growth
Will occur in 2020 at 6.64 billion people
on 2.1 million less people added per year Zero Population Growth
Will occur in 2029 at 6.90 billion people
Nations Yearly Population Numbers
Updated With The Latest Forecasted Numbers From LOVEARTH Showing
Zero Population Growth Occurring 2020 to 2029
Lets Population Swell
Growth Already Slowing
population growth has turned
"a very sharp corner" and is now slowing,
on its way to leveling off in the next century
areas show areas more heavily populated